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Prediction for CME (2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-16T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19461/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-20T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
Issued: 2022 Mar 17 1232 UTC
...
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20317
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Mar 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Mar 2022 until 19 Mar 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 007
COMMENT: There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR
2965 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) has decreased in size and
produced only one C-class flare (C1.2 with peak at 01:54 UT). The other
active region visible, NOAA AR 2967, is small and has a simple alpha
magnetic field configuration. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be
expected (M-class flares remain possible, but less likely).

A filament erupted from NOAA AR 2967, creating a CME first seen by
SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UT on March 16, with an angular width of about 100
degrees and projected speed of 360 km/s (the CME is too faint on
STEREO/COR2 beacon images in order to allow a 3D reconstruction). The bulk
of the CME is traveling to the east, but given the proximity of the source
to the central meridian, an arrival to the Earth is possible on 20 March.

Lead Time: 59.32 hour(s)
Difference: -23.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-03-17T09:38Z

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